Our house view on the macro forces shaping equity markets. These assumptions feed directly into every valuation model and research report we publish.
23
Active Themes
15 Apr 2026
Last Updated
As of 2025-02-14, the base-metals macro backdrop is being shaped by a still-fragile China industrial recovery, uneven global manufacturing conditions, and persistent supply-side tightness in selected markets. My knowledge does not include verified live market data beyond the 2024...
China GDP growth target
around 5%
2024-03-05
China official manufacturing PMI
around the 49-50 range through much of 2024 (dated, verify latest)
2024-06-30
LME copper 3M price
above US$9,000/t during parts of 2024, with rallies above US$10,000/t intrayear (dated, verify latest)
2024-06-30
LME nickel 3M price
roughly US$16,000-21,000/t range during 1H24 (dated, verify latest)
2024-06-30
As of 2025-02-01, the lithium and broader battery-metals market remains in a corrective phase after the acute tightness of 2021-2022 and the sharp price unwind through 2023-2024. The dominant current feature is oversupply in several parts of the battery raw-material chain, especi...
As of 2025-02-01, the energy and input-cost backdrop for mining and materials producers is mixed rather than uniformly inflationary. The sharp, broad-based energy shock seen in 2022 has largely faded, but cost pressure has not disappeared; instead, it has become more region-speci...
As of 2025-02-01, the rates and project funding backdrop for mining and materials producers is materially better than the 2022-2023 tightening shock, but it remains restrictive relative to the ultra-cheap capital era that supported many greenfield and long-dated development proje...
As of 2026-04-07, the iron ore and steel macro backdrop remains dominated by China’s uneven property and construction recovery, policy-led industrial support, and a more contested seaborne iron ore supply picture. I should note that my underlying knowledge may be dated and some s...
As of 2025-02-14, the rare earths and broader critical minerals macro backdrop remains defined by a tension between strategic urgency and weak spot-market economics. Governments in the US, EU, Japan, Korea, Australia and Canada continue to treat rare earths, lithium, graphite, ni...
As of my knowledge cutoff in 2024-06, the deep-tech funding cycle remained in a selective recovery rather than a broad-based boom. The 2021-era funding environment for frontier technologies — including quantum, advanced semiconductors, space, robotics, photonics, and other capita...
As of 2025-02-01, the government and defense procurement environment remains characterized by elevated strategic demand, long contracting cycles, and persistent execution friction across budgets, supply chains, and compliance. In the U.S., defense procurement is being supported b...
As of 2025-02-01, the quantum computing technology landscape remains in the early commercial and pre-scaled industrialization phase: technical progress is tangible, but broad economic utility is still constrained by error rates, qubit coherence, interconnect complexity, and the h...
As of 2025-02-15, the hardware and manufacturing supply-chain backdrop is materially improved versus the acute disruptions of 2021-2022, but it remains structurally more fragile, geographically concentrated, and policy-sensitive than pre-pandemic norms. Lead times for many mainst...
As of 2026-04-07, my knowledge may be dated and I cannot verify live market levels, so point-in-time figures below should be treated as indicative unless independently confirmed. Broadly, the global rates and liquidity regime has shifted from the acute inflation-fighting phase of...
As of my knowledge cutoff in 2024-06, AUD/USD was trading in the high-US$0.65 to low-US$0.67 range, having spent much of 1H24 oscillating within a relatively narrow band as conflicting macro forces offset each other. On one side, Australia continued to benefit from still-solid bu...
As of 2025-02-01, the regulatory and policy backdrop for mining, materials production, and adjacent advanced-technology supply chains remains supportive in strategic intent but increasingly complex in execution. Across major jurisdictions, governments continue to push a dual agen...
Australian wealth platform dynamics remained structurally supportive through 2025-08, with industry flow momentum still underpinned by compulsory superannuation contributions, a large installed base of advised assets, and ongoing migration by advisers toward contemporary managed-...
The macro backdrop for a fluorspar–niobium–rare-earths basket in April 2026 is defined by **strategic-supply-chain policy support colliding with uneven underlying end-market demand**. The basket logic remains valid: these markets are small, opaque, and highly concentrated, so com...
Remote greenfield project economics remain dominated by infrastructure realism rather than orebody headlines. For mining and bulk materials projects located far from grid, sealed roads, rail, ports, and labor pools, the market is still in a phase where fully loaded capex, energy ...
Canada’s mining ESG regime is no longer best understood as a disclosure issue; it is an execution regime in which **permitting, Indigenous rights, consultation quality, consent pathways and infrastructure coordination** determine schedule, capital intensity and, increasingly, acc...
Government support for critical minerals has moved from generic decarbonisation policy into an explicitly strategic-industrial phase in Canada and Australia. The dominant narrative in 2026 is not simply “energy transition support,” but the use of refundable tax credits, sovereign...
Junior mining capital markets are operating in a **selective but open** regime rather than a uniformly shut market. The macro backdrop is still defined by **positive real rates, a still-restrictive Fed policy stance, elevated benchmark yields, and periodic volatility spikes**, bu...
Lithium has moved out of the deep 2023-24 oversupply panic, but the market is not yet in a clean structural bull phase. The current regime is better described as **tightening balance after a prolonged glut**, with spot prices having rebounded sharply from 2024 lows while equity m...
NdPr and magnet rare earths have moved deeper into a **policy-defined, security-of-supply regime** rather than a purely spot-price commodity cycle. Demand remains anchored by the same structural end-markets—**EV traction motors, wind turbines, defence systems, industrial automati...
The macro regime for critical minerals is best understood as **security-of-supply industrial policy**, not a simple spot-price trade. By early 2026, the dominant narrative has shifted further from “energy-transition demand growth alone” toward **geopolitics, processing concentrat...
Gold is in a late-bull, policy-uncertainty-driven upcycle in which macro demand is being led less by jewellery and more by investment, official-sector buying, and reserve diversification. The regime is defined by three overlapping forces: a still-elevated but no longer tightening...
Forward price curves embedded in our valuation models
| Commodity | Unit | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | USD/oz | 4,500 | 4,600 | 4,400 | 4,300 | 4,200 |
| HIGH PURITY QUARTZ | US$/t | 1,050 | 1,100 | 1,150 | 1,200 | 1,200 |
| SILICA SAND | US$/t | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 60 |
| BAUXITE | US$/t | 76 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
| PT | US$/oz | 1,800 | 1,950 | 1,650 | 1,450 | 1,300 |
| Silver | US$/oz | 62 | 58 | 52 | 48 | 45 |
| PD | US$/oz | 1,350 | 1,300 | 1,200 | 1,100 | 1,000 |
| Copper | USD/t | 11,400 | 11,000 | 10,800 | 10,600 | 10,500 |
| Nickel | USD/t | 14,500 | 15,000 | 15,500 | 15,800 | 16,000 |
| AL | US$/t | 2,350 | 2,450 | 2,550 | 2,600 | 2,600 |
| IRONORE | US$/t | 92 | 85 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Iron Ore | US$/t | 92 | 85 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| BRENT | USD/bbl | 56 | 65 | 80 | 75 | 70 |
| Lithium | USD/t lithium carbonate | 8,900 | 10,000 | 11,000 | 11,500 | 12,000 |
| LIOH | US$/t lithium hydroxide | 10,500 | 11,500 | 12,500 | 13,500 | 14,000 |
| SC6 | US$/t | 700 | 800 | 850 | 900 | 900 |
| Zinc | US$/t | 3,300 | 3,000 | 2,800 | 2,700 | 2,600 |
| PB | US$/t | 1,950 | 1,950 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| SN | US$/t | 42,000 | 40,000 | 38,000 | 36,500 | 35,000 |
| Cobalt | US$/t | 50,000 | 47,000 | 44,000 | 42,000 | 40,000 |
| LIMESTONE | US$/t | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| MAGNESITE | US$/t | 115 | 118 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| GARNET | US$/t | 210 | 215 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| TITANIUM SLAG | US$/t | 875 | 900 | 925 | 950 | 950 |
| SYNTHETIC RUTILE | US$/t | 1,750 | 1,800 | 1,850 | 1,900 | 1,900 |
| XENOTIME | US$/t concentrate | 2,800 | 3,000 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
| MONAZITE | US$/t concentrate | 1,200 | 1,300 | 1,350 | 1,400 | 1,400 |
| HPA | US$/t 4N HPA | 32,000 | 31,500 | 30,500 | 29,500 | 28,500 |
| MOO3 | US$/lb MoO3 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| MO | US$/t Mo | 52,000 | 50,000 | 47,000 | 45,500 | 45,000 |
| SC2O3 | US$/kg Sc2O3 | 850 | 900 | 950 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| SALT ROCK | US$/t | 54 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| SALT SOLAR | US$/t | 150 | 155 | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| METAKAOLIN | AUD/t | 700 | 725 | 750 | 750 | 750 |
| SCM | AUD/t | 220 | 235 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
| ZEOLITE | AUD/t | 325 | 340 | 350 | 350 | 350 |
| POZZOLAN | AUD/t | 220 | 235 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
| KAOLIN HPA FEED | AUD/t | 170 | 175 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| FLUORSPAR | US$/t acid grade | 600 | 575 | 550 | 525 | 525 |
| V2O5 | US$/lb V2O5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.5 |
| RUTILE | US$/t | 1,250 | 1,300 | 1,350 | 1,400 | 1,400 |
| ILMENITE | US$/t | 280 | 290 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
| HMC | US$/t | 230 | 230 | 225 | 220 | 220 |
| ZIRCON | US$/t | 1,850 | 1,900 | 1,900 | 1,850 | 1,800 |
| MET COAL | US$/t | 250 | 240 | 230 | 220 | 220 |
| THERMAL COAL | US$/t | 115 | 110 | 105 | 100 | 100 |
| MN | US$/dmtu | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| POTASH MOP | US$/t MOP | 330 | 340 | 350 | 350 | 350 |
| POTASH SOP | US$/t SOP | 700 | 675 | 650 | 650 | 650 |
| PHOSPHATE ROCK | US$/t | 160 | 155 | 150 | 150 | 150 |
| TA2O5 | US$/lb Ta2O5 | 100 | 105 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| SM2O3 | US$/kg | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| SB | US$/t | 30,000 | 28,000 | 25,000 | 22,000 | 20,000 |
| REE | US$/t | 30,000 | 35,000 | 34,000 | 32,000 | 30,000 |
| NG | USD/MMBtu | 3.8 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.75 |
| NDPR | US$/t oxide | 95,000 | 110,000 | 120,000 | 125,000 | 130,000 |
| Nb₂O₅ | US$/kg | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 |
| NB | US$/t | 47,500 | 47,500 | 46,500 | 45,500 | 45,000 |
| LU2O3 | US$/kg | 800 | 825 | 850 | 875 | 900 |
| HO2O3 | US$/kg | 160 | 175 | 185 | 195 | 200 |
| GRAPHITE | US$/t concentrate | 850 | 900 | 950 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| GD2O3 | US$/kg | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 70 |
| FENB | US$/kg Nb contained | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 60 |
| FE MAGNETITE | US$/t concentrate | 110 | 108 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| EU2O3 | US$/kg | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
| ER2O3 | US$/kg | 45 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 50 |
| DY2O3 | US$/kg | 650 | 750 | 800 | 800 | 780 |
| ALUMINA HPA PROCESSING | US$/t | 32,000 | 31,500 | 30,500 | 29,500 | 28,500 |
| ALUMINA AL2O3 | US$/t | 350 | 340 | 330 | 325 | 325 |
| YB2O3 | US$/kg | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| Y2O3 | US$/kg | 7 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| W | US$/t | 50,000 | 48,000 | 45,000 | 42,500 | 40,000 |
| U3O8 | US$/lb | 90 | 95 | 100 | 100 | 95 |
| TREO | US$/kg | 85 | 95 | 105 | 110 | 110 |
| TB4O7 | US$/kg | 2,200 | 2,600 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 2,700 |
Each macro topic is matched to companies by sector and commodity exposure. When we generate a research report, relevant macro themes are injected as context — ensuring analysis is grounded in the current regime rather than stale assumptions. Forward price curves from the assumptions table flow directly into our DCF and NAV models.