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InvestHouse Research
Research subjectSky Metals LtdSKY:ASX
Report cycleQ3 FY26 UPDATEAs at 04 Sept 2026
Report01/ 11

Tallebung drilling puts resource scale to the test

Sky Metals explores for silver at Tallebung; drilling, geometry and assay continuity set the resource-definition test.

The study case is not yet the equity case

Tallebung Project has enough technical and PFS-level evidence to be assessed as a development asset, but financeability—the path from project value to funded construction—remains the discount.

What holds back valuation credit

Study economics need to survive detailed engineering, permitting needs to support the stated timetable, and funding terms need to limit dilution.

What changes the call

  • The next study confirms capital intensity, recoveries and execution assumptions.
  • Permitting and definitive funding make construction financeable on acceptable terms.
  • A second asset earns separate value only when its geology becomes a defined economic pathway.

The call weakens if the milestones above are delayed, fail to produce decision-grade evidence, or require materially more capital than the report assumes.

General information only: This report is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek licensed advice where required.

This report has not been commissioned or paid for by the company and may be AI-assisted. See Important Disclosures for publisher, conflicts, research policy and distribution information.

© 2026 InvestHouse Financial Services Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cover · Investment SummaryInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
SKY : ASXPAGE 02 / 11
Section Lens
02

June quarter: drilling broadened the Tallebung case

Quarterly snapshot
Last four reported quarters
CASH A$17.6M · BURN A$3.5M/QTRQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q7Q8FINANCING GATE · 5.0 QTRSEXPLORATION A$2.9M · ADMIN A$0.4M
Dec 25Open
Mar 26Open
June 26Open
Cash
A$4.70m
A$20.6m
A$17.6m
Receipts
A$39k
A$3.0k
Burn / OCF
A$0.00m
A$2.87m
A$3.54m
Exploration
A$1.40m
A$2.34m
A$2.87m
Admin
A$54k
A$0.32m
A$0.36m
Runway
Self-funded
7.2q
5.0q

Latest reported runway is 5.0 quarters at current burn.

The updated MRE was the immediate read-through from the enlarged dataset.

  1. 01The PFS, guided for late July, remained awaiting confirmation at 3 August.

Approvals moved into SSD scoping

SKY submitted the Scoping Report and received SEARs during the quarter, moving Tallebung into the defined EIS workstream. This reduces uncertainty around the approvals process, but is not approval completion and does not change the development timetable.

Cash fell as the program accelerated

Quarter-end cash declined from A$20.6m to A$17.6m as drilling, studies and approvals work progressed. Net cash used in operating activities was A$0.57m, with exploration spend of A$2.87m; the current programme remained funded.

June quarter: drilling broadened the Tallebung case · Section LensInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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Section Lens
03

Tallebung drilling: from high-grade hits to resource confidence

Lead asset
Developer underwriting anchor
Company stageDeveloper
Current gateFunding, permits and construction execution
Study anchorPFSTallebung Project

This improves the basis for testing a coherent shallow open-pit system, but the enlarged database increases confidence only if it establishes connected geometry and supports higher resource classifications.

Grade headlines need continuity

TBRC317 demonstrates the quality of the geological signal: 8m at 1.18% Sn and 0.25% W from 41m, including 3m at 2.88% Sn and 0.45% W. Repeated shallow, high-grade intersections and JORC-aligned sampling are already demonstrated; connected mineralised envelopes, true-width continuity, drill spacing and density remain unresolved.

  1. 01Northeastern expansion: A shallow tin-tungsten-silver zone outside the existing MRE extends the footprint, but its value depends on follow-up connectivity.
  2. 02Resource confidence: The next step is probability-weighted improvement in geometry and classification, not a binary conversion of every intersection into mineable inventory.
  3. 03Product breadth: Tin remains the primary value driver; tungsten and silver are potential credits until recovery, distribution and payable assumptions are established.

Metallurgy must connect geology to study quality

Ore sorting and concentrate work provide the technical link: reported sorting-related work and saleable-concentrate testing reference tin recovery above 98%, followed by gravity or flotation concentration. Representative variability testing, mass balance and concentrate results across mineralised domains are still needed to support study-level design confidence. If those results align with continuous shallow envelopes, Tallebung’s development probability increases; until then, mine economics remain unproven.

Therefore, Tallebung has progressed from isolated drilling toward resource confidence, but the remaining underwriting risk is whether continuity and representative metallurgy convert that signal into a mineable, study-quality design.

Tallebung drilling: from high-grade hits to resource confidence · Section LensInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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Section Lens
04

MRE, metallurgy and SSD work set the next re-rating sequence

Next proof
Stage-native catalyst
Current gateFunding, permits and construction execution
Next proofBinding finance and physical delivery milestones

Engineering work now carries the near-term read-through

Ongoing assay flow and bulk-sample work must establish marketable concentrate and recovery outcomes, while EIS preparation advances the defined approvals workstream.

Doradilla remains a later option

Doradilla drilling and progress towards a first JORC resource could add support to the longer-dated option, but its 10–15Mt Exploration Target at A$0.31–0.42% Sn across 2.5km is not yet a JORC resource.

MRE, metallurgy and SSD work set the next re-rating sequence · Section LensInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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Section Lens
05

Tin support meets selective junior capital

Positive real rates and a US 10-year Treasury yield of 4.31% on 14 April 2026 favour projects with visible milestones, while volatile risk appetite makes follow-on funding dependent on operating progress. For SKY, this affects financing terms and the valuation discount rather than the geological outcome.

Tin support is not a substitute for project evidence

Tin’s use in solder for electronics and electrical equipment, combined with a structurally tight but volatile market, supports the long-term product backdrop. However, the supplied macro pack contains no independent global US$/t benchmark or 12-month forecast, so no short-term price deck should be embedded in SKY’s value. Supply constraints can improve the value of a successful resource, but cannot establish project economics.

The placement shows the funding window

SKY’s A$20.5m placement at A$0.155 per share on 12 February demonstrates that capital was available against visible project milestones. The 18.4% discount also shows the cost of that access. Current exploration is funded, while future resource-definition or development capital remains exposed to market conditions and project progress. The macro backdrop therefore supports access to the next work program, but not a lower project-risk discount ahead of delivery.

Tin support meets selective junior capital · Section LensInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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06Decision Variables

Valuation & funding

Can the company fund the next value gate on acceptable terms?

Market Cap
A$0
Last Price
A$0.185
Cash
A$17.6m
Net Cash
A$17.6m
Development ScorecardDeveloper path: permits → funding → EPC → offtake → construction → commissioning
NowPermits
NextFunding
NextEPC
NowOfftake
NextConstruction
NextCommissioning
Gate
Status
Why it matters
● Permits
In progress
Approvals path to FID
○ Funding
Open
Project finance package
○ EPC
Open
Schedule and capex control
● Offtake
In progress
Product / customer path
○ Construction
Open
Physical de-risking
○ Commissioning
Open
Operating proof / first cash
Capital stackSources for the development path
Source
A$m
Cash
A$17.6m

Expansion beyond Stage may still require project-level or partner capital.

Cash flow inflectionPath to self-funding
2026Current cash burn
2027Commissioning
2027 H2First sales
2028Operating cash flow
2029+Fund Stage
Valuation decisionThe discount in plain English
Question
Answer
House read
House value depends on proof, not headline study value.
Why we stop at that credit
The equity model haircuts the full project case because the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed.
Why the discount exists
the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed
Market read
Market is paying for confirmed evidence, not the full project case yet.
Most valuable proof
The next valuation test is whether the next milestone changes model risk, not just the news count.
What breaks it
Weak technical evidence or a delayed proof point keeps the discount in place.
Target disciplineWhy we only recognise that share of value today
Question
Answer
Market metric
target value construction is the anchor; producer multiples are only relevant after production or cash flow evidence.
Comparator basis
No like-for-like resource peer denominator is available. The resource line is an implied-target reconciliation, not peer validation; it neither proves nor disproves the accepted valuation.
Why not the top case
Target is the base evidence case, not a full-success case. We stop here because the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed. Higher credit needs the next technical, permitting or operating proof point.
Binding constraints
the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed
Market discountWhy the market discounts it
  • Funding — High severity
  • Execution — Medium severity
  • Commodity — Medium severity
  • Permitting — Medium severity
  • Dilution — Low severity
Development ScorecardDeveloper path: permits → funding → EPC → offtake → construction → commissioning
NowPermits
NextFunding
NextEPC
NowOfftake
NextConstruction
NextCommissioning
Gate
Status
Why it matters
● Permits
In progress
Approvals path to FID
○ Funding
Open
Project finance package
○ EPC
Open
Schedule and capex control
● Offtake
In progress
Product / customer path
○ Construction
Open
Physical de-risking
○ Commissioning
Open
Operating proof / first cash
Capital stackSources for the development path
Source
A$m
Cash
A$17.6m

Expansion beyond Stage may still require project-level or partner capital.

Cash flow inflectionPath to self-funding
2026Current cash burn
2027Commissioning
2027 H2First sales
2028Operating cash flow
2029+Fund Stage
Valuation decisionThe discount in plain English
Question
Answer
House read
House value depends on proof, not headline study value.
Why we stop at that credit
The equity model haircuts the full project case because the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed.
Why the discount exists
the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed
Market read
Market is paying for confirmed evidence, not the full project case yet.
Most valuable proof
The next valuation test is whether the next milestone changes model risk, not just the news count.
What breaks it
Weak technical evidence or a delayed proof point keeps the discount in place.
Target disciplineWhy we only recognise that share of value today
Question
Answer
Market metric
target value construction is the anchor; producer multiples are only relevant after production or cash flow evidence.
Comparator basis
No like-for-like resource peer denominator is available. The resource line is an implied-target reconciliation, not peer validation; it neither proves nor disproves the accepted valuation.
Why not the top case
Target is the base evidence case, not a full-success case. We stop here because the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed. Higher credit needs the next technical, permitting or operating proof point.
Binding constraints
the next technical, permitting or operating proof point has not yet landed
Market discountWhy the market discounts it
  • Funding — High severity
  • Execution — Medium severity
  • Commodity — Medium severity
  • Permitting — Medium severity
  • Dilution — Low severity
Online modelOpen the full valuation detail online

The print page keeps the decision table readable. The portal carries the full stage stack, assumptions, sensitivity, funding mechanics and peer context.

View valuation detail
Valuation & fundingInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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07What Backs The Number

Evidence & execution

Evidence strengthWhat is proven versus still speculative in the house target
Thesis leg
Evidence status
Value
Weight
Known drilled inventory
Proven intercept geometry
Not yet modelled
Evidence case
Potential inventory
Continuity / width still open
Growth envelope
Speculative until wider envelopes close
Blue sky
System-scale case
Success case
Not in evidence case
Proof pointsVisible proof and the next valuation test
Balance sheetA$17.6m cash context Known
Next prooffunding terms if work accelerates
Evidence statusWhat is established, supported by current evidence, and still needs proof
Area
Evidence status
Read-through
Lead asset quality
PROVEN
Strong asset/value anchor
Funding path
SUPPORTED
Main valuation discount
Valuation evidence
PROVEN
Asymmetry is visible
Technical and contract proof
SUPPORTED
Needs next technical proof
Logistics and infrastructure
SUPPORTED
Acceptable, with permitting work
Study-to-funding delivery
SUPPORTED
Needs milestone delivery
PFS and catalyst timing
SUPPORTED
Timing is visible but not immediate
Evidence & executionInvestHouse
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08Institutional Cross-Check

Model & peer context

Market Cap
A$0
Last Price
A$0.185
Cash
A$17.6m
Net Cash
A$17.6m
House assumptionsKey model inputs behind the valuation
2026
$42,000
2027
$40,000
LT
$35,000
Operating assumptions behind the model
Study
Prod tpa
Opex/t
NPV₁₀ (post-tax)
IRR
Capex
Tallebung Pre-Feasibility Study
Source filing
A$309m
57.2%
A$139m
Tallebung Tin-Tungsten-Silver Project PFS Presentation
Source filing
A$438m
A$139m

8% discount · 7.25 yr mine life · 1.5 yr payback · Aug 2026 · PFS

8% discount · 7.3 yr mine life · 1.5 yr payback · Aug 2026 · PFS

Model & peer contextInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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09What Moves NPV

Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity AnalysisStudy-disclosed NPV response to price and cost movements · PFS · Tallebung Project
Sensitivity Analysis (AUD m) NPV8 After Tax
Variable
-33%
-30%
-25%
-17%
-13%
Base Case
+11%
+13%
+24%
+25%
+33%
+50%
+67%
+80%
+105%
tinPrice
325
438
514
611
665
tungstenPrice
325
438
552
665
795
silverPrice
405
438
465
494
527
discountRate
482
460
438
418
399

Values are the study's published NPV outcomes at each stress, not a house re-run. Use them to see which lever breaks the project economics first.

Sensitivity analysisInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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10

Leadership & Register

RegistermissingBoardas at 02 Sept 2026Peersempty
Board & Key PersonnelComposition
01
Norman Alfred SeckoldChair
Chairman with more than 40 years of natural-resources management experience; also chairs Alpha HPA, Nickel Industries and Fulcrum Lithium.
02
Oliver DaviesManaging Director
Joined Sky Metals as a geologist in 2019, became CEO in 2022 and Managing Director in September 2024; has exploration experience with Evolution Mining and Alkane Resources.
03
Scott ToddExecutive Director
Executive Director responsible for project development; qualified mining engineer with senior leadership experience at PYBAR Mining Services, Mitsubishi Development and Thiess.
04
Richard Grant Manners HillNon-Executive Director
Geologist and solicitor with more than 25 years of resources-sector experience; chairman of New World Resources and Accelerate Resources.
05
Rimas KairaitisNon-Executive Director
Minerals-industry executive with more than 25 years of experience in exploration, project development, mineral processing and company management.
+1 additional people in source records
Bottom line
Board composition is a resource-development check; watch whether management converts inventory and metallurgy into study-grade economics before committing development capital.
Leadership & RegisterInvestHouse
Sky Metals LtdFY2026 Research ReportInvestHouse Research
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