from study confidence to construction funding

The December 2025 drilling completion moved Briggs from field execution into interpretation and study use. Hole 25BRD0038 was drilled 80m along strike from 25BRD0037, while the earlier hole returned 222.2m at 0.26% Cu, 48ppm Mo and 0.72g/t Ag from 9m. We view the geological match to the April 2025 MRE as incremental support for continuity, rather than a standalone resource increase.

1. 01Assay flow: The 10 December release identified assays for 25BRD0038 and the remaining section of 25BRD0037 as forthcoming; the selected pack provides no later confirmation, making the assay read-through the key quarterly follow-up.
2. 02Study relevance: Further northwest infill drilling planned for 2026 is intended to improve mine-planning inputs and support an updated MRE, rather than establish a production profile.

The 13 November 2025 scoping announcement confirmed a positive Scoping Study and progression to PFS, following an MRE of 932Mt at 0.21% Cu, 36ppm Mo and 0.6ppm Ag. The study established a conventional open-pit and flotation pathway, while the SPP completed on 24 December 2025 raised A$2.1m at 0.6c. That combination supports near-term study continuity, but the market still needs disclosed PFS economics and development funding terms before assigning broader project value.

1. 01House read: We believe the December raise narrowed the immediate execution discount because it funded continuity after the 2025 drilling and scoping work; it did not resolve the capital required beyond PFS.
2. 02Secondary asset: East Kimberley remained a contingent portfolio option during the period, with Briggs continuing to receive the principal technical and capital attention.
3. 03What changed conviction: The evidence now supports a more defined study pathway at Briggs; conviction would increase with final assays, an updated MRE and PFS outputs that quantify capex, operating costs and payable metal.

The November 2025 Positive Scoping Study moved Briggs from resource definition into structured development work, while the 10 December 2025 drilling update reported that hole 25BRD0038 matched the April block model across a 392.7m hole. That continuity is more important than an isolated intercept because it supports the existing mineralised envelope and reduces the risk that the MRE is built around disconnected zones. Alma holds 51% through the Canterbury Resources joint venture, with a disclosed path to 70%.

The resource is large, but its low average copper grade makes recovery, throughput, power and water assumptions central to cash-flow conversion. Prior testwork reported 93-96% rougher copper recovery and 93-95% locked-cycle recovery, including coarse to very coarse grind sizes. A formal PFS-scale recovery rate is not disclosed; the testwork supports the flowsheet concept, while variability and scale-up work must determine how those results translate into engineering design. If the PFS converts this evidence into credible capex and operating costs, investors can underwrite future concentrate cash flow rather than study-stage resource value.

1. 01Processing: Conventional crush-grind-flotation, with SABC or HPGR options, gives Briggs an established flowsheet rather than a novel processing route; coarse-grind recovery results could support lower power intensity if maintained across the orebody.
2. 02By-products: The 73Mlb molybdenum and 16.5Moz silver inventories provide potential payable credits, with a molybdenum circuit identified as a PFS workstream rather than included as established operating value.

The Central Queensland location supports a comparatively familiar Australian operating jurisdiction, but power, water, logistics, geotechnical inputs and tailings design still need project-specific definition. East Kimberley remains a separate strategic exploration option and does not compete with Briggs for near-term asset credit.

The dominant failure mode is a PFS mine plan that reduces recoveries, throughput or economic scale materially from the Scoping Study concept, cutting the value attached to Briggs before construction funding is considered. We believe the market is treating Briggs too much like a static resource; the next credible study should show whether its continuity and metallurgy support a fundable development case. If that occurs, Alma becomes a copper developer with measurable mine economics; otherwise it remains a resource-scale exploration option.

Copper is the lead commercial exposure. Smelters and traders ultimately pay for copper concentrate, while demand is linked to electrification, electric vehicles, renewable generation, data centres and grid investment. Alma’s 2 April 2026 presentation describes constrained supply and limited near-term project development as supportive of copper pricing, but the supplied macro pack does not provide current copper inventory, benchmark pricing, concentrate treatment charges or new-supply data. The commodity case therefore supports the relevance of Briggs, rather than proving a near-term price uplift.

The November 2025 positive scoping announcement moved Briggs into PFS work, but did not disclose the capex, operating cost, production or cash-flow inputs required for a single-case DCF. The market consequence is specific: a supportive copper tape can improve investor appetite for drilling and study capital, but it cannot substitute for a measurable development case. The May 2026 A$4.0m placement demonstrates access to equity capital for the current work programme, while future funding terms will depend more on PFS quality and project-level participation than on copper sentiment alone.

The long-term demand framing is constructive, but the available evidence is issuer guidance rather than an independent copper cycle dataset. The 2 April 2026 presentation identifies electrification, EVs, renewables and data centres as demand drivers and describes supply as constrained. Those themes support a large, long-lived copper deposit, yet they do not establish the incentive price, project ranking or timing of a market deficit. Briggs remains relevant through its 2.0Mt contained copper resource, while the value assigned to that inventory still depends on mine planning and study evidence.

Selective capital markets increase the value of dated operating evidence. The last supplied macro observations recorded a US Federal Funds target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on 18 March 2026 and a US 10-year Treasury yield of 4.31% on 14 April 2026, conditions consistent with selective rather than indiscriminate junior-mining funding.

1. 01PFS inputs: release of capital, operating and scheduling assumptions would move Briggs from resource exposure towards a financeable development assessment.
2. 02Funding mix: evidence of project debt, strategic or JV equity, or offtake prepayment would reduce reliance on repeated head-company equity.
3. 03Copper signals: global benchmark pricing, visible inventories, concentrate-market conditions and delayed or added supply should determine whether the commodity backdrop is strengthening or weakening.

We believe copper sentiment can support Alma’s next financing, but only PFS quality and a credible funding mix can make more of the project value measurable.

The 10 December 2025 drilling update confirmed completion of the Briggs programme, with 25BRD0038 matching the block model over 392.7m; assays for that hole and the remaining 25BRD0037 interval are still awaited as at 22 August 2026. The June 2025 quarterly report disclosed no debt and liquidity of about A$3.2m, supporting near-term study work but not the later build decision.

The Positive Scoping Study released on 13 November 2025 supported PFS progression. The PFS must quantify mine scheduling, comminution, variability metallurgy, infrastructure and capital intensity. Reported recovery rate is 93-96% in rougher tests and 93-95% in locked-cycle tests, but scale-up and concentrate quality remain design inputs. If the PFS supports a buildable operating case, the market can value Briggs against a defined development pathway rather than resource scale alone.

Baseline environmental work and the approvals pathway, outlined at 4-5 years in November 2025, are long-duration milestones. Alma holds 51% of the JV and can reach 70% by spending about A$7m by 30 June 2031. We believe the market is correctly withholding full project credit until PFS economics and a credible funding package identify who carries construction capital.

Investment committee view: Briggs merits ownership only for investors prepared to underwrite staged study and funding risk. We would become more bullish if the overdue assays support an MRE upgrade and the PFS supplies credible capital and operating parameters. We would reduce conviction if the MRE update is not delivered by Q4 2026 or the PFS identifies materially weaker recoveries than the reported 93-96% rougher range. The dominant failure mode is the funding package, because it determines whether study value can become shareholder-owned cash flow.