RML.ASXSPEC BUYMaterials
Price
$0.046
Target
$0.105
Upside
+128.3%
Mkt Cap
A$88M
FULL_NOTE15 December 2025
Resolution Minerals Ltd
RML.ASX - FY2025 Research Report
Current
$0.046
-0.00% today
Target
$0.105
SPEC BUY Rating
Upside
+128.26%
To target
Mkt Cap
A$88M
RML.ASX
Investment Thesis
What matters most
- 1RML offers high-beta exposure to a potential district-scale Sb–W–Au–Ag hub at Horse Heaven where Golden Gate and Antimony Ridge could convert early discovery into scalable resources feeding a downstream processing node, materially re-pricing the equity if achieved.
- 2The company’s strategy to vertically integrate via the Johnson Creek mill acquisition and focused metallurgy work increases optionality to capture downstream margins and attract U.S. strategic funding, conditional on a viable flowsheet.
- 3Recent recapitalisations and U.S. market repositioning provide a multi-year funding runway for resource definition and study work but leave significant dilution risk from a large options and performance-rights pool that will influence net equity value per share.
- 4Valuation is best viewed as a portfolio of contingent options — near-term upside driven by resource definition at Horse Heaven and mid-term upside contingent on PEA/PFS outcomes and U.S. policy/grant support — with Australian assets providing low-cost secondary upside.
- 5The equity is therefore suited to specialist, risk-tolerant investors seeking asymmetric upside from critical-minerals exposure, with position sizing required to reflect technical, permitting and financing execution risk.
Key Catalysts
What can re-rate it
- Serial Golden Gate drilling and assay results through 2026 that demonstrate strike and depth continuity sufficient for a maiden Exploration Target and JORC resource statement, which would materially re-rate the stock.
- First-pass Antimony Ridge drilling and subsequent KPM metallurgical/bulk-sample results that validate high-grade Sb–W feed characteristics and the ability to blend with Golden Gate material for the Johnson Creek flowsheet.
- Definitive decision and technical outcome on Johnson Creek mill acquisition, refurbishment capex estimates and permitting path that convert the upstream discovery into a practical downstream development route and attract strategic funding.
- Progression of U.S.-focused capital markets initiatives (OTCQB/Nasdaq listing, institutional placements) and tangible U.S. government engagement or grant/loan commitments that de-risk funding for studies and early-stage development.
- Australian asset validation (Drake East, Neardie, Spur South) via targeted drilling or farm-outs that can provide non-dilutive funding or additional optionality if Horse Heaven timelines slip.
Key Risks
What can break it
- Failure to convert Golden Gate and Antimony Ridge intercepts into contiguous, JORC-compliant resources would materially compress the company’s exploration-option valuation and limit downstream economics.
- Inability to demonstrate a robust Sb–W–Au–Ag flowsheet or to economically refurbish and operate Johnson Creek would undermine the vertically integrated hub thesis and lower project valuation materially.
- Funding shortfalls or adverse equity market conditions requiring dilutive raisings would significantly erode per-share value given the large pool of options and performance rights outstanding.
- Protracted permitting, ESG or community opposition in Idaho (water/forest constraints) or Native Title and heritage issues in Australia could delay timelines, increase costs, or restrict project scope, reducing near-term optionality.
- Commodity-price volatility in antimony, tungsten and gold or shifts in U.S. critical-minerals policy that reduce strategic funding appetite would negatively re-rate the project before technical milestones are locked in.
01
Overview7 min read
Investment Snapshot & Corporate Overview
- Resolution Minerals has pivoted from a micro-cap Australian explorer into a U.S.-centric critical minerals developer anchored by the Horse Heaven Sb...
02
Overview7 min read
Key Developments Since the FY2025 Annual Report
- Horse Heaven has moved from acquisition into active development: OTCQB listing completed and multi-rig drilling campaigns and district sampling expa...
03
Investment Thesis9 min read
Investment Thesis & Recommendation
- RML offers leveraged, high-beta exposure to a potential district-scale Sb–W–Au–Ag system at Horse Heaven, with Golden Gate and Antimony Ridge provid...
04
Projects6 min read
Horse Heaven Flagship Project — Geology, Scale & Strategy
- Horse Heaven comprises ~14,580 acres (~5,600 ha) in central Idaho across ~700 federal lode claims immediately adjoining Perpetua’s Stibnite project,...
05
Projects6 min read
Australian Antimony‑Gold & Porphyry Pipeline
- The March 2025 acquisition of Drake East, Neardie and Spur South adds a low-cost, high-grade antimony-gold and porphyry-gold-copper pipeline that co...
06
Projects4 min read
64North & Legacy Assets — Optionality and Rationalisation
- North provides Tier-1 district gold exposure around Pogo in Alaska but is now positioned as a non-core, long-dated option behind Horse Heaven.
- Man...
07
Valuation11 min read
Catalysts & News‑Flow Roadmap
- Near-term news flow is dominated by Horse Heaven: ongoing Golden Gate assay releases, RC step-outs, first Antimony Ridge drilling and KPM metallurgi...
08
Valuation5 min read
Valuation Framework and Scenario Analysis
- DCF-style valuation is premature because RML has no JORC Mineral Resource/Reserve and no defined development schedule; valuation is best framed as r...
09
Risks6 min read
Key Risks, ESG Considerations & Mitigants
- RML remains a high-beta, exploration-stage name with material technical, permitting and funding risks; share price outcomes will be highly sensitive...
10
Financials8 min read
Financial Position, Funding Strategy & Cash‑Flow Outlook
- RML has transitioned from sub-A$0.3m cash and director loans in late 2024 to ~A$15.6m cash at 30 September 2025 following a series of equity raising...
11
Other7 min read
Critical‑Minerals Market & Policy Backdrop
- Antimony and tungsten markets are structurally tight, with supply dominated by China and Russia and recent antimony prices exceeding US$50,000/t, un...
12
Appendix10 min read
Project & Technical Appendix
- Horse Heaven, Drake East, Spur South, Neardie, 64North, Benmara, Carrara and George are summarised with consistent fields for location, stage, commo...